Portfolio Update March 2025: I Made A Mistake...
Complete overview of the portfolio for the month of March
When the market and my portfolio were booming in January, I said:
“How January goes, the rest of the year goes.”
Can I take that back? Haha.
The stock market has been erratic since February. February was the worst month so far, and March didn’t get much better.
The market has tested my patience, trust, and emotions these last two months.
And when that happens, the risk of getting emotional or losing sight of the bigger picture is a real danger.
But here’s the thing — this is the moment to go deeper.
To deepen our understanding of our companies, to strengthen conviction, and to improve our process.
That’s exactly what I’ve done.
I made some big decisions — ones that will impact my portfolio forever but for the better.
More on that soon.
But first — let’s take a look back.
Here’s how March went and where we stand YTD.
Happy reading!
Portfolio Performance
In March, this is how the stock market looked like:
S&P 500: -2.50%
NASDAQ: -2.60%
Dow Jones: -1.70%
Russel 2000: -1.60%
MSCI All-World: -3.19%
The biggest loser in March was the MSCI All-World index. But, the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones, and Russel 2000 aren’t far behind on the MSCI All-World.
What are the drivers of these horrible monthly performances of the indexes?
Escalating trade tension
U.S. Tariffs: The U.S. administration imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada starting March 4, 2025. This action heightened global trade war fears, leading to considerable market volatility. Even increasing tariffs on European steel and automotive.
Retaliatory Measures: In response, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, further exacerbating trade uncertainties. Mexico threatened to do the same, and the European head has implemented retaliatory tariffs as well… it’s a mess.
Investor concerns over stagflation
Stagflation Fears: Investors grew increasingly concerned about stagflation, characterized by high inflation coupled with stagnant economic growth. A March survey by Bank of America indicated that 71% of fund managers anticipated stagflation in the global economy within the next year.
Economic Indicators: The Conference Board's Present Situation Index declined significantly, signaling a potential economic slowdown.
Revised corporate earnings outlook
Earnings Downgrades: Analysts tempered their expectations for U.S. corporate earnings in the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to concerns over the global trade environment. Notably, companies like Apple, Tesla, and Ford reported weaker-than-expected sales, contributing to the downward revisions.
Volatility
Index Corrections: Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite entered correction territory, defined as a decline of over 10% from recent peaks.
I’m not going to speak too much on these items.
Why? My political and personal opinions on these subjects will add no actual value. We all have our opinions, preferences, and ideologies.
We’re all different, and that makes us beautiful.
What I will say is…
There are legitimate worries here, particularly regarding the tariff increases and the stagflation. If this continues in full force, it could do some damage in the short term.
That’s just a fact. Every CFA, economist, etc., will all agree with this.
But! There’s a but here!
It’s temporary.
The market will adapt, investors will adapt, and politicians will adapt.
Everyone and everything will adapt. Always keep this in mind. Times will improve; it has always been like this, and we could expect this to happen too.
Alright! Let us get into the portfolio numbers and our holdings.
The most exciting part.
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